University of British Columbia Department of Statistics Technical Report # 256 April 2010 “ Selecting a binary Markov model for a precipitation process

نویسندگان

  • Reza Hosseini
  • Nhu D Le
  • James V Zidek
چکیده

This paper uses rth-order categorical Markov chains to model the probability of precipitation. Several stationary and non-stationary high order Markov models are proposed and compared using BIC. The number of parameters increases exponentially by adding the Markov order. Several classes of high-order Markov models are proposed which their increase of number of parameters are modest. The theory of partial likelihood is used to estimate the parameters.

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تاریخ انتشار 2010